Chapter 412: Confidence in Further Increased Food Production
Guo Yang handed the document to Qi Ziwen and said, "Actually, you are still too greedy. You should be satisfied with crop rotation and fallow."

After listening to the three things Qi Ziwen reported, Guo Yang did not rush to let him go, but asked him to continue drinking tea with him.

"How's work going?"

"It's great. All departments are very cooperative. Looking at the overall development of the entire group gives me a bird's-eye view. I have learned a lot. I have to thank the boss for his cultivation and respect."

Qi Ziwen's tone was sincere, and this was also his true feelings. Four years ago, he was a poor and studious agricultural student who received the Jiahe Scholarship.

After joining Jiahe, he was directly selected for the Jiahe Leadership Program. After two years of training in the agricultural project team, he was rapidly promoted to assistant to the chairman this year.

Although he is just one of the assistants, he feels very good personally and is working very hard while absorbing all kinds of knowledge.

He has nothing but gratitude and admiration for his boss who promoted him, because he is an even more extreme workaholic than himself.

"It's because you are willing to work hard." Guo Yang said with a smile. He was quite satisfied with Qi Ziwen. He was young and hardworking. He didn't think about intrigue but was down-to-earth in doing things. It was comfortable to work with such a person.

From work to life, and then to study, the two chatted for more than half an hour, and then there was more work outside the door.

Jiang Wen, Jiahe Grain and Oil's exclusive secretary, walked in, greeted Guo Yang and Qi Ziwen in turn, and then found a seat next to the coffee table and sat down.

"Regarding the construction plan of the grain terminal berths at Beihai Port, there are some differences between Jiahe International and Jiahe Grain and Oil..."

Soon, Guo Yang found out the reason.

After reaching an investment agreement on Beibu Gulf Port with Guangxi Province, the port department immediately started planning. Jiahe International, Jiahe Biochemical, and Jiahe Grain and Oil all participated in it, but they had differences on how much tonnage of berths to prioritize in construction.

Jiahe International and Jiahe Biochemical believe that priority should be given to the construction of two 10-ton berths and one 1-ton berth to meet the needs of transportation and export of agricultural products such as grain and biodiesel.

Jiahe Grain and Oil believes that before the Pinglu Canal is opened to navigation, it would be sufficient to build three berths with a capacity of 3 to 3 tons.

But in the end, Jiahe International and Jiahe Biochemical gradually gained the upper hand, so Gaode asked Jiang Wenlai to report in advance, since the final plan would have to be approved by the boss anyway.

Jiang Wen said: "Because of this issue, the parties have argued several times."

Guo Yang thought for a moment, "There is a railway along the Beibu Gulf. If agricultural products from the northwest and southwest are transported to the port by rail, it doesn't matter whether the Pinglu Canal is navigable or not!"

Jiang Wen's heart skipped a beat.

The boss asking this question is likely to be inclined to go for larger tonnage, while his company Jiahe Grain and Oil has exactly the opposite opinion.

After quickly reviewing Mr. Gao's remarks in his mind, Jiang Wen said:
"The strategic investment department of the group conducted a survey and concluded that after considering factors such as fallowing and expanding the promotion of fuel ethanol, the potential for domestic grain imports and exports in the future is not high, and self-sufficiency is the main focus. The current investment in domestic ports is likely to be idle.

At the same time, the Strategic Investment Department’s investigation found that the four major grain traders did not actually attach much importance to storage in domestic grain-producing areas.

Based on this, the four major grain traders may also believe that domestic grain exports are temporary. After balancing the planting areas of various crops, the country's dependence on foreign grain will be reduced, but it also does not have the ability to export grain.

Judging from the changes in corn and soybean production this year, and with crop rotation and fallow next year, it is time to adjust the planting structure.

Therefore, Jiahe Grain & Oil believes that the importance of domestic inland and coastal logistics will be far greater than ocean logistics in the future, so it proposes to give priority to the construction of 3 to 5-ton berths. "

Jiang Wen was a little nervous. He actually knew that his boss was firmly optimistic about the growth of domestic grain production, but he was the resident secretary of Jiahe Grain and Oil.

Moreover, deep down, he somewhat agreed with the research report of the Strategic Investment Department. The domestic grain trade in the past two years was indeed a bit chaotic, and only Jiahe seized the opportunity to export corn.

However, with the issuance of the crop rotation and fallow documents, 6000 million mu of arable land will be involved next year. By then, the soybean area will further increase and the corn area will be significantly reduced again.

So how much surplus grain will be left for export next year?
Definitely not many.

It can be said that it is the crop rotation and fallow policy strongly advocated by the boss that is likely to cause Jiahe Grain and Oil's current export volume to be halved again and again.

Guo Yang picked up the teacup, took a sip, looked at Qi Ziwen beside him, and asked, "What do you think?"

Qi Ziwen pondered for a while and said, "In the long run, crop rotation and fallow are beneficial to increasing yields."

"But it also reduces the area of ​​land used." Jiang Wen added: "And the cost of producing corn and soybeans in China is higher than in South America. As the price of agricultural inputs and labor in China rises, this disadvantage becomes more obvious."

Qi Ziwen was speechless for a moment and drank his tea awkwardly.

Guo Yang looked at Jiang Wen and asked, "Did you bring the research from the Strategic Investment Department?"

"I brought it." Jiang Wen took out a document from the folder.

After Guo Yang took it, he started reading it. The research was very detailed, supported by various data, and the conclusion was consistent with what Jiang Wen said.

This huge change in crop rotation and fallow will have a profound impact on the country's future grain production.

The reason for making this decision is that the total output of the country's three major staple grains reached 5.6 million tons this year, including 2.06 million tons of rice, 1.3 million tons of wheat, and 2.24 million tons of corn.

If we add the estimated soybean production of 5052 million tons, the potato production is about 3000 million tons.

The total grain output for the whole year reached a record 6.4 million tons.

The world's per capita grain standard is 400 kilograms, while the current domestic standard is about 479.4 kilograms, which exceeds the world's per capita standard by 79.4 kilograms.

For example, some small grains such as sorghum and millet are not included.

In general, feeding the Chinese people is not a problem at all.

But after seeing these data, Guo Yang's expression unconsciously became serious. When Jiang Wen and Qi Ziwen noticed his change of expression, they couldn't help but sit up straight.

In fact, after seeing the total grain output of 6.4 million tons, Guo Yang suddenly realized that the country's grain output at its peak in the future might be more than 6.4 million tons.

It seems that the total output over the years is 6.5 million tons?

After all his efforts for so long, the total grain output has not exceeded that of his previous life.

According to the research report, if China's economy continues to maintain rapid development, corn and soybeans for feed will not be able to meet demand.

He frowned and thought for a while, and when he saw the soybean output was 5000 million tons, he realized where the problem lay.

The yield per unit area of ​​corn is much higher than that of soybeans. This result occurs because of the adjustment of planting structure in China and a large number of corn fields have been converted to soybeans.

After the false alarm, from this perspective, this research report is well-founded.

The current domestic food consumption potential has not yet reached its maximum. When it reaches its peak, the existing corn and soybean production will indeed not be able to meet demand.

So can the rate of increase in grain production keep pace with the rate of economic development?
The general view is that it is difficult.

Although there is a surplus of 70 to 80 million tons this year, we will have to rotate crops and put them on fallow next year. The economy is also recovering, and grain and feed consumption is increasing.

Therefore, most people believe that food exports will be tightened again next year, and this may be the case in the future.

When consumption once again exceeds total production, trade-offs may have to be made, including giving up some soybean planting areas to ensure corn supply.

"This research is very detailed!" Guo Yang sighed, and then looked at the signature on the report: Miao Yifeng, Xia Qi.

Jiang Wen, who had been waiting for a long time, breathed a sigh of relief and said, "Boss, do you agree to build a 3-5-ton berth first?"

Guo Yang shook his head, drank another cup of tea in the face of Jiang Wen's puzzled expression, and then said: "A 10-ton berth is needed."

He waved the research report in his hand again, "As for this research, it does have some content, but it also overlooked some key points."

Jiang Wen's face was full of surprise.

Guo Yang smiled and said, "After the Ministry of Agriculture issues documents on fallow rotation, there will be a lot of analysis like this. Let's wait and see. I will communicate with AutoNavi."

Things turned out just as Guo Yang expected. In the next few days, the topic of crop rotation and fallow became a hot topic in the industry.

From this year's pilot area of ​​more than 600 million mu, it will surge to 6000 million mu next year, accounting for 3% of the total cultivated land area.

The news from the Ministry of Agriculture spread immediately in the seed, agricultural supplies, planting, and grain and oil industries.

There have been frequent unusual movements in agriculture-related stocks in the stock market, and companies related to seeds, fertilizers, etc. have experienced a decline.

Some people began to question this policy by arguing that leaving land fallow would threaten food security, and many even cursed at it.

As the cultivated area decreases, the demand for seeds, fertilizers and pesticides will also decrease, and the interests of many people will be harmed.

As a result, some people began to make sarcastic remarks about Jiahe.

"In the past two or three years, Jiahe Grain and Oil has achieved remarkable results in the domestic and international grain logistics supply chain, quietly completing the reform of scattered transportation, which is refreshing. Jiahe Grain and Oil has also become a pioneer in the export of domestic corn and other grains.

At the same time, Jiahe has also invested in many supporting facilities at the port, but most of them are for smooth exports rather than processing.

However, with the release of the crop rotation and fallow document, Jiahe’s dream of exporting grain should come to an end.

Ironically, it was Guo Yang, the chairman of Jiahe, who proposed crop rotation and fallow. "

In the office, Gao De, Qu Yang, Yan Qun, Chen Yanqiu, Qi Ziwen and Miao Yifeng sat around Guo Yang's desk.

Guo Yang casually read out a media report about him. There have been many similar remarks in recent days.

He looked at the crowd, "How many of you think this way?"

Miao Yifeng, vice president of the strategic investment department, was the first to raise his hand. He was the one who led the research report, and he also believed that Jiahe’s current investment was too aggressive.

After Miao Yifeng raised his hand, Gao De followed suit and indicated that he held the same opinion.

Guo Yang looked at the others: "What about you?"

Chen Yanqiu said: "I don't know much about domestic grain production, but even if we don't consider grain exports, Jiahe needs a 10-ton berth in the Beibu Gulf. Now that we have established a port company, we can't be timid from the beginning."

According to his idea, since they want to participate in international trade, it would be best to build two 2-ton general bulk cargo berths and related facilities such as yards and silos from the beginning. In addition to grain, soybean meal, raw sugar, steel and other groceries can also be transported.

All the investments added up exceed 10 billion yuan, which is a huge amount, but from the perspective of the entire logistics system in the southwest and northwest regions, this investment is worthwhile.

Qu Yang and Yan Qun also expressed their opinions.

What surprised Chen Yanqiu, Gao De and others was that the two of them clearly believed that the rate of increase in domestic grain production could exceed the rate of growth in consumption.

Qi Ziwen, who spoke last, joined this camp without hesitation.

This left Gao De and Miao Yifeng confused, and even Chen Yanqiu was surprised.

Where does these people get their confidence?
Guo Yang put his hands in his pockets and leaned back in his boss chair. "In fact, Tianhe suffered the most from fallow rotation, but they are the most confident."

Gao De had been wondering for a long time, and couldn't help asking, "Mr. Qu, Mr. Yan, what new seeds has Tianhe produced?" Qu Yang replied, "Now, Tianhe approves hundreds of new varieties every year, and there is no shortage of new seeds every year, and this is the case across the country."

"What does this mean?" Miao Yifeng asked in confusion, "Can the yield per unit area be raised to a higher level?"

Yan Qun, who is in charge of seed production, smiled and said: "In recent years, the domestic grain yield has been climbing, but now it has reached the critical point where quantitative change will lead to qualitative change."

Yan Qun explained in detail.

Since Tianyu No. 1 broke the convention and pioneered dense-density single-grain sowing, domestic corn production has entered a soaring stage.

Various high-yield records of field corn emerged one after another, and Tianyu No. 1 began to become the king. Only a few varieties on the market such as Xianyu 335 and Zhengdan 958 could support it.

Naturally, the seed companies are unwilling to accept this. If you can develop density-tolerant varieties, then we can do it too.

In terms of imitation, domestic seed companies are also first-class.

Moreover, breeding trends are changing and large varieties are difficult to emerge, so most seed companies and scientific research institutions conduct scientific research with one province or region as the target.

This improves the success rate of breeding and makes the newly bred varieties more adaptable to the local area.

According to Yan Qun, now is the time to reap the rewards.

In the past two years, the new varieties that have been lined up for approval by companies such as Denghai, Longping, Kenfeng, Beidahuang, and Wanxiang Denong are all such precise small varieties.

In the provincial variety approval planting test yield fields, the high-yield research fields can reach 4000 to 4500 jin per mu, which has caught up with the high-yield research fields in North America.

Although these varieties all carry the genes of Tianyu No. 1 to some extent, this is still considered an improvement in overall strength.

This means that domestic corn yield will see a small leap forward.

In addition, Tianyu 8 also has potential to be tapped.

These are just some of the sources of Qu Yang and Yan Qun’s confidence.

The other two of the three major staple foods, wheat and rice, also have huge potential to be tapped.

The commercialization rate of wheat and rice seeds is lower than that of corn. Basically, no farmers will keep corn seeds for themselves, but it is different for wheat and rice.

Especially for wheat seeds, the commercialization rate has long hovered between 50% and 70%. Some farmers and even large grain growers such as cooperatives are using their own seeds.

Wheat is mostly self-pollinating varieties. In the past, when farming in rural areas, if farmers bought wheat seeds with high yield and good quality in a certain year, they could keep the seeds for 2-3 years. If a neighbor had a good variety, they would also take their own wheat to exchange seeds.

Therefore, in general, in years with a bumper wheat harvest, the proportion of wheat seeds retained by the owner will increase significantly, and sometimes the utilization rate of commercial seeds will even be less than 50%.

This has increased the difficulty of promoting wheat seeds and also hindered the promotion of Tianmai No. 1 and Wheat Quanyousheng.

Tianmai No. 1 has been on the market for six years, and Wheat Quanyousheng is also in its third year of promotion.

Relying on Tianhe's field marketing and promotion system, the promotion area of ​​Tianmai No. 1 has been maintained between 800 and 1200 million mu.

For a high-gluten wheat variety, it is already an extremely excellent single product, but the idea of ​​keeping seeds for oneself also affects its upper limit.

The situation is different for wheat Quanyousheng, whose promotion area has reached 2500 million mu this year!

This has enabled Tianhe to achieve a 10% market share in the domestic wheat seed market.

Two years ago, Tianhe’s wheat seed business revenue was only 2 million yuan, but this year’s wheat revenue is estimated to be around 12 to 13 billion yuan.

In the loose domestic wheat seed market, this is already an excellent result, and Tianhe has become one of the largest wheat seed suppliers in the country.

But the potential of wheat as an all-rounder has just been revealed.

During these three years, Wheat Excellent has been promoted in a scattershot manner.

It stands out among many wheat seed brands for its excellent yield and wide adaptability, and its planting areas have spread across seven provinces in the Huanghuai winter wheat region.

Wheat farmers have had different experiences over the past three years.

The year before last, Shandong Province suffered from floods and the Northeast suffered from drought, resulting in a general decrease in wheat production. However, the high yield of all-superior wheat stood out from the crowd.

Last year, wheat generally had a good harvest, and all-superior wheat still had an advantage, but sales were still affected by self-retained seeds.

This year, there was a spring drought in the north, especially in Henan Province. Wheat production was severely reduced due to the drought. The province's wheat yield dropped to 366kg/mu, the lowest in recent years.

But during the summer harvest, a 7000-acre wheat field in Jiaozuo stood out, with the average yield per acre still exceeding 500 kg.

This is 134kg higher than the provincial average yield.

This incident was reported by many media at the time, and the Jiaozuo Rich Farmer Cooperative and Wheat Elite became famous.

Tianhe also praised a technician named Xiaoyu.

I heard that in order to help the Rich Farmers Cooperative alleviate the spring drought, he came up with all kinds of ideas and ran around for the Rich Farmers Cooperative in February.

Although it may not be effective, Jin Kaiqiang, chairman of the Funong Cooperative, has promoted Tianhe wheat as an excellent student.

This shows that it has a very harmonious relationship with its customers, and the soybeans it recommended to rich farmers for planting in the next crop also achieved good economic benefits.

Tianhe naturally had to reward him.

This year, in addition to Henan Province, various high-yield farmers have also emerged in winter wheat producing areas such as Huanghuaibei, Huanghuainan, and Northeast China.

There are many places where the yield per mu exceeds 500kg, and there are even high-yield fields with 600kg or even 700kg.

In the high-yield research field, Tianhe Seed Science Academy also tried its hand and achieved an acreage yield of 865kg for 'Wheat All-Excellent', breaking the highest per-unit yield record of Chinese winter wheat that had been untouched for 10 years.

And it also raised this record by nearly 100kg.

The 'Jimai 22' cultivated by the Shandong Academy of Agricultural Sciences had a yield of 789.5kg in the year of production measurement, but it still pales in comparison.

But Tianhe cares more about field planting and market value.

In the seven Huanghuai provinces, the average wheat yield in most provinces is still 400~450kg. Once a natural disaster occurs, such as in Henan Province, the yield has dropped to 366kg this year.

However, in cities and counties where the promotion area of ​​wheat is relatively large, the average yield of several cities has exceeded 500kg, and the highest has even reached 580kg.

Qu Yang and Yan Qun integrated these data and found that the national wheat planting area is about 3.34 million mu, and the proportion of high-quality wheat is less than 8%.

If we only calculate based on the seven provinces of the Huanghuai region, the winter wheat planting area in the seven provinces is about 2.65 million mu, which only accounts for 9.43%.

The average yield per mu in the seven Huanghuai provinces was overestimated at 450 kg. The actual yield potential of full-quality wheat is 700 kg/mu, but it is only calculated here as 550 kg.

If the promotion of high-quality wheat in the seven provinces of the Huanghuai region increases by 1 percentage point, or 265 million mu, the national wheat output will increase by 26.5 tons.

By increasing the market share by just 37.7%, the wheat production in the seven Huanghuai provinces will increase by 1000 million tons.

If calculated based on 650kg, it would be 2000 million tons.

The increase in production is extremely significant.

Then there is rice.

This is Tianhe’s weak point, with only two main varieties: Tiandao 22 and Tiangengyan No. 1.

Tiandao 22 is a conventional variety that pursues taste, with low yield and small promotion area. Fortunately, Tiangengyan No. 1 has made contributions to increasing the yield of rice in saline-alkali land.

Moreover, rice is the strong point of the domestic breeding industry and is also one of the best in the world.

Even if it develops naturally, the rate of increase in yield is considerable.

Finally, as for potatoes, the potato tissue culture factory in Dingxi, Longzhong has also made some achievements.

More than half an hour had passed since Yan Qun spoke, during which time he also gave each person a piece of information.

By the time he finished his presentation, the people who were listening nearby had already circled the data on A4 paper. Their attitudes were different, but they finally understood the source of the confidence to increase production.

"What a mistake." Gao De sighed, "I should have called you to the meeting."

Miao Yifeng shook his head, not knowing whether he felt regret or loss. "When we were investigating, Mr. Qu was still abroad, and Mr. Yan was also at the seed production base for a long time. I couldn't find anyone even if I wanted to call him."

Chen Yanqiu was also deeply moved.

As a Singaporean who has worked as a food analyst at Cargill for more than ten years, I have a relatively clear understanding of the food production data of various countries.

In his impression, in the past, the average corn yield in the United States was nearly twice that of China, and the output of wheat, potatoes, soybeans, etc. was also far ahead.

Corn and soybeans have now been overtaken, and wheat and potatoes are about to be caught up.

This speed of development is just like the earth-shaking changes in China's economy in the past 30 years, and will also shock the world.

Qi Ziwen sat in a chair, concentrating on organizing his notes, while Qu Yang was leisurely drinking tea.

Taking everyone's reactions into account, Guo Yang said, "What Mr. Yan said is only part of it. If Bi Qiang wasn't here, there would be more to say."

"That's enough, that's enough." Gao De had figured it out by now. "The first phase of the Beibu Gulf Port project plans to have three berths. I suggest one each for 3 tons, 5 tons, and 10 tons."

Now it was Chen Yanqiu and Miao Yifeng's turn to be surprised for a moment. Their expressions changed so quickly that they even mentioned 20 tons.

"That's not the point."

Guo Yang said in a deep voice that the investment in Beibu Gulf Port is aimed at going global. Whether this is true or not, he will demand a large tonnage. What he cares about is confidence and consistency in strategic goals.

Whether it is Miao Yifeng or Jiahe Grain and Oil represented by AutoNavi, they have been dealing with competitors that tend to be foreign-funded for a long time.

The information these people spread is either that the domestic grain import and export is balanced, or that the growth of domestic grain consumption is greater than the growth of production, and in the end, a choice must be made and soybeans must be imported.

Coupled with the recent crop rotation and fallow policy, Miao Yifeng, Gao De and others were also affected.

In addition, it is also related to the fact that Jiahe Grain and Oil Information Platform does not include Tianhe’s seed information, which needs to be considered.

Slapping the table, Guo Yang raised his voice and said, "Jiahe must always have its own judgment and strategic determination, and not be disturbed or influenced by the outside world. Are the judgments of the four major grain merchants always accurate?"

"Remember, this is our territory!"

(End of this chapter)