Chapter 442 Unloading the Burden
China's current annual diesel consumption is 1.57 million tons and gasoline consumption is 0.7 million tons.

Combined with the major infrastructure projects of railways, highways and basic facilities currently being promoted, China will be one of the top two oil users in the world in the next few years.

The launch of this document means that biodiesel will largely replace diesel in the future.

If B5 is fully adopted, 785 million tons of petrochemical diesel will be reduced.

B10, a decrease of 1570 million tons.

B20, a decrease of 3140 million tons.

This will have a profound impact on the future global energy landscape.

Both domestic and foreign media have given relatively profound interpretations of this.

Initially, the core focus was on energy, as international oil prices have once again reached highs since the post-financial crisis.

There is even a trend of hitting $100 per barrel again.

The countries most affected by this are the United States and China, after all, they are currently the largest consumers of crude oil in the world.

At the same time, both sides are actively looking for countermeasures, and the United States is placing more hope on breakthroughs in shale oil extraction technology.

China is planning global imports while seeking a variety of new energy solutions.

Whether it is shale oil or new energy, OPEC member countries and global energy media are paying attention.

But most people think this is difficult, and even if it breaks through, it will hardly affect the market position of crude oil.

Due to factors such as war, the past few years may be the time when OPEC members are most united.

After several meetings, they unanimously decided to jointly cut production, raise international oil prices, and make a lot of money.

However, during this period, China's biodiesel achieved major breakthroughs.

The International Energy Agency released its latest report.

"Huaxia's biodiesel production capacity has grown beyond global imagination. In the past, due to limited raw material supply, the annual production capacity was less than 30 tons.

But in the past two years, with the great success of bioenergy forests, the annual production capacity is expected to exceed 200 million tons!

This is an extremely exaggerated number.

If China can continue to maintain this growth rate next year, it will become the world's largest biodiesel production country!

And be able to keep this title for many years!
At the same time, if the energy tree species of Jiahe Group are promoted globally, the global biodiesel supply growth will increase significantly! "

The entire report touts how great China's biodiesel is, giving people the feeling that it is about to replace crude oil.

This report is undoubtedly extremely exaggerated.

However, many Western media responded to this report and advocated new energy, and only a few securities media questioned it.

Because OPEC has also spoken out.

Its acting secretary general, Gerndal, said, "OPEC will maintain the duration of crude oil production cuts and safeguard the interests of oil-producing countries."

However, less than two days after Gendahl's speech, the Venezuelan News Agency broke the news.

"Venezuela's state oil company signs oil production increase agreement to boost output at five of the country's oil companies."

This is a definite backstab.

So much so that Qi Ziwen didn't quite understand it for a moment.

"Aren't people generally suffering from low oil prices? Why are some people jumping out so quickly?"

Guo Yang sat on the sofa with his legs crossed, holding a cup of hot tea in his hand.

“Cutting production to maintain prices is to win the ultimate market pricing power, but it is hard to say whether small countries such as Venezuela can survive until that day.

The price of crude oil is not low now, so it would be great to take advantage of this opportunity to sell more.”

Qi Ziwen asked: "What about other countries?"

Guo Yang smiled and said, "It's hard to say. The differences within OPEC are intensifying. Some want to reduce production, while others want to increase production. They are all considering their own interests."

I thought, this is the prisoner's dilemma.

The fundamental reason for its occurrence lies in the selfishness and distrust of the parties involved, which usually manifests itself in a price war.

Guo Yang looked at a magazine on the coffee table, the World Energy Outlook Report published by the International Energy Agency.

He finished reading this magazine.

It mentions the shale gas revolution and the ongoing shale oil revolution.

This reminded him of the prisoner's dilemma.

In the original time and space, OPEC member countries, which suffered heavy losses in the financial crisis, have united internally to reduce production in recent years, jointly raising global crude oil prices.

Subsequently, America completed the shale oil revolution.

Shale oil production began to grow explosively, greatly increasing America's energy self-sufficiency.

As a result, the United States is even on track to once again become the world's largest oil producer.

This triggered a price war between the United States and Middle Eastern oil producers, the differences within OPEC widened again, and the prisoner's dilemma was born.

This time, biodiesel has also achieved a technological breakthrough and is likely to resonate with American shale oil.

So, Guo Yang spent the whole morning sitting on the sofa, drinking tea, reading, and thinking.

Qi Ziwen, who had finished his work later, also joined in.

"Saudi Arabia will increase production and start a price war!"

He may not understand other things, but he knows that Saudi oil is cheaper than water, which shows how low its extraction cost is.

If any country dares to start a price war on crude oil, he believes it must be Saudi Arabia.

"Yes, have you heard of the prisoner's dilemma?"

If it was before, he wouldn't be sure, at least not so fast, because the raw materials for biodiesel come from trees and need time to grow.

But the moment he saw shale oil, he was certain that crude oil prices would hit a low again.

This is a good thing for China, the world's factory, but not necessarily a good thing for Jiahe.

Qi Ziwen said, "I've heard that. What the boss meant is that oil prices will start a downward spiral, and will they fall drastically? But the cost of crude oil extraction in some OPEC member countries is not low, so it shouldn't fall indefinitely."

"Take a look at this report first."

Guo Yang pointed to the magazine published by the International Energy Agency and asked, "What can you see?"

Qi Ziwen picked up the magazine and began to read it.

“The shale oil revolution?”

"Yes."

Qi Ziwen raised his eyebrows and started to make assumptions in his mind.

If the production of shale oil in the United States increases significantly, combined with domestic biodiesel, the Middle Eastern oil giants will certainly not sit idly by.

There is a high probability that there will be a price war.

He pondered and said: “If we really want to distinguish between winners and losers, the biggest blow of the price war to the United States is the stagnation of the shale oil revolution and the delisting of shale oil.

In contrast, Gulf countries, whose economies are heavily dependent on crude oil exports, seem likely to lose their lives.

It is hard to say whether small countries like Venezuela can survive until that day.”

He found it somewhat ironic that Venezuela was the first to announce an increase in production and might then call for a cut in production.

Because although Venezuela has large reserves of crude oil, the quality of its oil is poor.

Guo Yang also laughed and said: "This is the sadness of a small country. The economy can easily fall into crisis with a little fluctuation.

Countries in crisis often do not choose to actively reduce production, but tend to increase production in order to increase income to combat the crisis.

Then the oil price will fall further, which will stimulate production increase, forming the basis for the future downward spiral of oil prices.”

Fortunately, Jiahe’s raw material costs are low enough, and its ability to withstand price wars is higher than that of shale oil.

So Guo Yang thought about it for the whole morning.

But I didn't have much worries in my heart.

If a price war really has to determine winners and losers, shale oil and small countries will be the first to fall.

You know, the big country behind Jiahe has not yet put in its full effort.

Just a piece of document caused ripples in global energy. This is the influence of the world's largest crude oil importer.

Qi Ziwen also figured it out a little bit, and said, "Do you want to short crude oil?"

Guo Yang blinked. What was he thinking about this morning? How come he didn't think of such an important thing?

“Yes, but mainly for hedging purposes, and the exposure can be gradually opened up.”

“Don’t you have separate arrangements for short-selling funds?”

"There is no need to take risks. The first goal now is to make the industry bigger and stronger."

"Pity."

Qi Ziwen felt a little regretful. He had heard that the company had performed very well in the futures market many times, but he had never experienced it once and had no idea what the scene was like.

Guo Yang said, "Why, you are interested in crude oil futures? How about I let you manage a fund for fun?"

"Is it okay?" Qi Ziwen rubbed his hands together, eager to try.

Guo Yang felt a little funny, "Of course."

"Then try it."

"Okay, then I'll arrange a $1 million fund for you overseas, and you'll be in charge of it for the next three years."

A fund of 1 million US dollars is already not small, but for him, it is just that, not to mention that the direction chosen by Qi Ziwen is most likely correct.

But Qi Ziwen was really shocked.

He just wanted to try and learn how to understand the company's strategic choices from a financial perspective.

This is also what he learned from his boss. Although Jiahe can be radical from time to time, it has always been on the right track in terms of general direction.

This is all thanks to the boss, and has something to do with his keen sense of smell.

So much can be seen from a magazine of the International Energy Agency that he couldn't help but admire it.

As for trying crude oil futures, I really don’t want to miss such a good opportunity to practice. After all, crude oil is known as the king of commodities.

However, this is 1 million US dollars!

Qi Ziwen hesitated and said, "How about trying to manage 10 million first?"

Guo Yang glanced at him and said, "Jiahe doesn't have such a small fund."

"What about thirty million?"

Guo Yang narrowed his eyes and said, "One hundred million is one hundred million. You are so fussy. Or do you have no confidence in my judgment?"

“I just don’t have confidence in myself.”

"It's okay. If there's a loss, it's the investors and the company's money. If there's a profit, I'll give you dividends."

"There's no need for dividends. I'm already satisfied with this opportunity to study." Qi Ziwen said sincerely.

Guo Yang pondered and said, "This is the rule."

The matter was settled, and Guo Yang called Yang Cheng on the spot, asking him to raise a fund related to crude oil futures with a fund pool of 100 million yuan, and Jiahe would make up for the shortfall.

Guo Yang could feel that Qi Ziwen was very excited.

In fact, he is the same. It would be a good experience if he could personally train senior management talents.

Two days later, after Venezuela, there were no more signs of oil-producing countries increasing production.

At the same time, Bernstein, a well-known American oil and gas research organization, also published a report.

The gist of it is that it believes the International Energy Agency's forecast is too exaggerated and that China's high production of biodiesel is difficult to sustain.

The first thing to be affected is food security.

“As a populous country with a rapidly developing economy, China’s demand for food will increase extremely rapidly in the next decade.

Even though China's grain yields have increased significantly in recent years, demand is still growing faster than grain production.

Large-scale crop rotation and fallow, the decline in cultivated land area, and frequent natural disasters are also seriously affecting food production.

In particular, China has left 6000 million mu of land fallow this year, and the seven consecutive increases in grain production are facing an end!

If China encourages the development of bioenergy forests on a large scale, this will lead to energy forests competing with food for land, further exacerbating the food crisis!
Secondly, China's northwest, which is suitable for developing energy forests, is dry and water-scarce, and the southwest is also in a mountainous area with steep terrain.

Just as technology and cost factors are driving people toward bioenergy forests, there may be unexpected shocks in the unforeseeable future.”

Bernstein has considerable influence in the oil and gas sector, and its research reports have also been recognized by the financial community.

This made Guo Yang feel slightly relieved.

The later the price war ends, the longer time is left for the development of bioenergy forests.

Guo Yang also spoke with Fang Xiaozhang on the phone. Jiahe Biochemical needed to set up a futures trading department, the main purpose of which was hedging.

Jiahe Grain and Oil also has a similar department, which also focuses on hedging.

Futures trading is now gradually becoming formalized, with various hedging regulatory measures to ensure that the company's normal profits can be locked in, and occasionally bring extra surprises.

In addition to crude oil, Guo Yang also thought of two other varieties that could be invested in: cotton and sugar.

Especially sugar, which is a highly cyclical product, generally with a cycle of 5 to 6 years. There is a saying that there are three years of bull market and three years of bear market.

Big funds also like to trade according to cycles.

But now Golden Harvest has another unexpected factor: Indian sugarcane.

This is a super high-yielding variety, but also a very soil-destructive variety.

This means that once this variety is popularized, India's white sugar production will surge in the short term, but will soon plummet again.

This is an opportunity to reap wealth.

It may not only be futures, Guo Yang also thought of taking this opportunity to acquire a plantation in Brazil. Thinking of this, Guo Yang called Yang Cheng again.

"We will raise two more futures funds at home and abroad, corresponding to cotton and white sugar, with a lock-up period of five years. The fundraising scale of the four funds is tentatively set at US$5 billion, and Jiahe will make up for the shortfall."

After hearing this, Yang Cheng's heart, which had been calm for a long time, began to beat rapidly again.

"Is there finally another chance?"

"I guess so. I saw the video you posted on Huinong.com recently and it was pretty good, with quite a few views." Guo Yang joked.

I thought that Yang Cheng was a good tool. The original financial elite was trained to become an expert in agriculture, rural areas and farmers.

Just thinking about it, the image of men in suits and ties digging the soil and growing vegetables on a rooftop farm comes to mind.

Yang Cheng said excitedly: "Whether it is life or work, passion is needed. Now only financial transactions can make me feel the burning passion."

Guo Yang smiled and said, "Don't get excited, act quickly and decide on the fund manager first."

"OK."

Compared with the futures departments of Jiahe Grain and Oil and Jiahe Biochemical, Weiguang and Bluestar Investment are purely speculative.

Read the error-free version at 69shuba! 6=9+shu_ba is the first to publish this novel.

Even though Guo Yang only allowed Qi Ziwen to test the waters of crude oil futures, Weiguang and his gang would definitely not be able to hold back.

Because a lot of information and data within Jiahe are interoperable, Weiguang can also obtain first-hand data and make judgments on the direction of transactions.

However, Golden Harvest is now under strict supervision in all aspects and would rather make less profit than make big mistakes.

It took Guo Yang several days to complete the preliminary preparations for futures commodity trading and to hand it over.

In the past few days, domestic public opinion on bioenergy and food security has become increasingly intense.

Jiahe also felt this pressure.

This pressure is passed up one by one from Jiahe Grain and Oil, Jiahe Biochemical, Tianhe Seed, Quanwang Biological, etc.

"Agricultural product prices are on the rise, and prices abroad are skyrocketing. Will we be next?"

"Prices in South Korea are soaring, and pork belly has become a luxury item!"

"Global food prices rebounded, with foreign wheat products increasing by an average of 40%!"

"Leaving 6000 million mu of land fallow and letting it recover could lead to disaster!"

"What are the results of leaving farmland fallow? Reporters have found that a large amount of land has been abandoned in rural areas!"

In addition to media reports, various companies have fanned the flames and openly and covertly belittled the land fallow policy.

Especially for companies in the seed and agrochemical fields, domestic competition is extremely fierce.

The one-time fallow of 6000 million mu of land this year has made these people feel the chill.

It just so happens that prices abroad have skyrocketed. If we don’t raise our flags and make protests now, when will we? Are we going to wait until next year to continue leaving the land fallow, or even expand the area of ​​fallow?
That's when winter is really coming.

The share prices of listed companies in the domestic seed industry, agrochemicals and other fields have been hovering at low levels for a year.

Many institutions, stockholders and corporate shareholders have put the blame on fallow land.

Because of the fallow period, the market has shrunk, which eventually led to further internal circulation and further compression of industry profits.

Therefore, these people spared no effort in dealing with fallow land.

The best cause is food security. You see, my lords, food pressure is back, so please quickly cancel the fallow period.

This is probably the mentality of these people.

As for Jiahe, which was the first company to implement crop rotation and fallow in Jiuquan, the chairman of Jiahe who proposed the fallow was also frequently mentioned.

The pressure was not actually passed on to Guo Yang, because the management of each subsidiary took charge of the matter.

But Guo Yang is not blind, so he can see it naturally.

So he convened a video conference with several of the company's executive teams.

From Guo Yang's perspective, on the big screen, people from various companies filled the conference room.

After the opening, Guo Yang went straight to business.

"The essence is very simple. You should have noticed that the concept of 'food crisis' has always been introduced from abroad."

"Actually, it's Japan and South Korea." Gao De took over the conversation. "This year, natural disasters have occurred frequently abroad, grain production has decreased, and domestic exports have also decreased. These two are in a hurry."

The people at the meeting gradually understood the reason.

Despite the headlines about the merger of Dow and DuPont and Monsanto's acquisition of Syngenta, America's agricultural production is still poor this year.

At the same time, crude oil prices have returned to high levels, making bioenergy profitable again.

The result is that North and South America are increasing their bioenergy production and reducing food exports, and food importing countries are once again hit hard.

Japan and South Korea have been acting dishonestly in the international arena recently, so China has simply restricted food exports to them.

Qu Yang pondered and said, "In fact, the domestic grain surplus is not much this year, but the planting structure is better and the external dependence is smaller. It's just that it has been misinterpreted."

"Is the seven consecutive increases in grain production really coming to an end?" Yu Qin asked.

Forecasting domestic grain production has always been Tianhe’s forte, because it can infer a rough estimate from seeds.

Qu Yang shook his head. "Not necessarily. It's hard to judge. The yield potential was released ahead of schedule, the planting structure was adjusted, and 6000 million mu of land was left fallow. No one would know until the last minute..."

He hasn't finished speaking yet.

But the atmosphere on the scene was a bit dull and it was hard to judge... Tianhe rarely used such words.

"I shouldn't do that." Guo Yang sighed.

Everyone thought that the boss could not accept the reduction in grain production, especially Gao De, Miao Yifeng and others.

In the previous investment and construction of berths in the Beibu Gulf Port, Gaode and Miao Yifeng both advocated the construction of docks with small and medium berths, taking into account crop rotation and fallow.

Because of this, he had a big quarrel with Chen Yanqiu and others.

Finally, it was the boss who made the decision to build a 10-ton berth because he firmly believed that crop rotation and fallow would affect grain exports.

Now, it seems, it's hanging!
Gao De sighed: "It is indeed a pity."

Miao Yifeng said: "The grain export task this year and next year should not be heavy, so we have to find a way to solve the transportation capacity problem."

“Should we stop fallowing?”

After hearing these words, Guo Yang realized that these people had misunderstood his meaning, and became even angrier. He said sternly:
"I shouldn't have been so discouraged! It's fine for others, but why are you carrying this burden too!"

Gao De was a little stunned.

Miao Yifeng and others were not much better off.

Isn't this what should be done?

Guo Yang said: "Mr. Qu said it very clearly. The planting structure is improving. In the past two years, corn needed to be exported and soybeans needed to be imported in large quantities. Now, after the adjustment, the overall supply is more balanced and external dependence has been greatly reduced. This should be a good thing!

Why are you all so dejected? "

"Yes, this is a burden!" Qu Yang said, "There are also many people in Tianhe who carry this burden.

In the past few years, the country has achieved super bumper harvests and huge increases in grain production every year, and the main credit goes to Tianhe's high-quality seeds.

The Tianyu series has been well received by farmers, and Tianhe people are proud of their contribution to the country's grain production increase. Now that it may end, many people cannot accept it.

But I think it ended well!

This is a heavy burden!

The sooner you throw it away, the better!

Is there not enough food in the country?

In fact, domestic agricultural product prices have been very stable and stably low!
At this time, we should adjust the structure, improve soil fertility, and allow the land to recuperate. This is the most scientific way!
So what if we sell fewer seeds?

This will not affect Tianhe. Tianhe is still the leader in the seed industry and the only multinational seed giant in China!"

Qu Yang's tone was fierce.

His words seemed more like they were addressed to Tianhe's management, but other company personnel attending the meeting also felt they were enlightening!

I don’t know when, Tianhe, or Tianhe, has been burdened with the burden of increasing domestic grain production.

This was indeed very important in the past, affecting the livelihoods of more than one billion people.

But now they are all exported. Do you know what export means? It means that domestic grain prices are in line with international prices, and corn prices are falling instead of rising!

This cannot be said to be a good thing.

In the past, in order to increase grain production, too much land productivity was overdrawn.

The black soil layer in the Northeast is becoming thinner year by year, and some have even turned into saline-alkali land and low-yield fields.

Traditional grain-producing areas such as the Yangtze River Basin, the Huanghuai River Basin, and the Hetao Plain are also facing the threat of land degradation.

There are still a lot of lands polluted by industrial production and urban construction that are producing grain. Is it necessary to produce such grain?

It is acceptable that the public does not understand, but as a member of Jiahe, I have experienced various ecological governance projects and witnessed various ecological disasters.

At least this is some common sense.

He was just blinded by the momentary glory and became burdened.

Many people thought of the boss’s sigh at the beginning: “Shouldn’t have done that!”

You really shouldn’t!

"Today's Qu Yang is a little bit righteous, so righteous that it's evil." Guo Yang's teasing voice brought everyone back to their senses, "Too righteous that it's a little unlike Qu Yang."

"Hahaha……"

There was a burst of laughter at the scene, and everyone thought of the rumors about Qu Yang in the group.

There were a series of rumors about him having eight wives, being involved in gangs, being a top fighter, being ruthless, etc., combined with the "positive" at that time.

It is indeed so righteous that it can cause evil.

At this time, Guo Yang said: "But what Mr. Qu said is also right, some burdens should be thrown away!"

"it is good."

"Mr. Qu is so awesome!"

“The boss is handsome!”

Various voices rang out on the screen, and Guo Yang felt that everyone's morale had been mobilized. He stretched out his right hand in front of the screen, signaling silence, and said:
“But who said that food production will definitely decrease?

Before the results come out, everything is still a mystery. Because of the fallow period, the statistics this year have become more difficult!

There is still hope for increased production!"

Next, he talked about some detailed deployments, which needed to be completed by all Jiahe people.

So, before getting down to business, he needed to get rid of everyone's baggage.

After the meeting, Qi Ziwen followed Guo Yang and muttered, "I'm afraid someone up there can't let go of their baggage either."

Guo Yang raised his eyebrows, "Have you ever doubted that the previous data on domestic grain production increases were false?"

“I suspected it, but then it went away.”

"Because we came to the headquarters?" Guo Yang thought that his confidence was strengthened after he looked at Tianhe's internal data.

"No." Qi Ziwen smiled, "Comparing the prices of the two neighbors, you will know how rich the domestic products are."

Guo Yang smiled, but had to admit that this did make sense.

Japan and South Korea are two neighboring countries with developed economies. However, the cost of living for their residents is astonishingly high, and prices can fluctuate dramatically at any time.

Even the South Korean army food looked like pig feed.

In later generations, South Korean athletes packed up all the watermelons at the Chinese Winter Olympics and were reported by Japanese athletes.

I have to say it's quite interesting.

But it also shows the abundance of material production in China. Watermelons sold on the roadside in rural areas cost only 30 to 50 cents per pound, and even a few cents per pound when the market is bad in the production area.

Guo Yang understood Qi Ziwen's change of mentality, thought about it, and said, "Don't worry, the upper echelons can see the pros and cons clearly, and now is the best time to leave the land fallow."

Qi Ziwen said: "It is inevitable that people are worried because it has been unresolved for so long."

Guo Yang smiled and said, "It's still early."

Normally, annual grain production statistics are released in early December or early January.

So, it’s still early.

It’s just that some people deliberately sell anxiety, making many people and groups look forward to the release of data.

...

September and October are the golden months, and this sentence also applies to agriculture.

After October, the weather gradually gets colder and the cold wind begins to sweep across the country, but the domestic clowns are still active, and selling anxiety always gets a lot of traffic.

However, this time is a little different.

Jiahe also began to fight back with all its might.

In terms of media channels, Jiahe has the NIO Weibo, which has growing traffic, and Huinong.com, a leader in the fields of agriculture and long videos.

The middle-level backbones of Jiahe, who have gotten rid of their burdens, have begun to be active on various platforms.

Let’s take out the data, achievements and real cases from the past few years to explain them one by one.

Food crisis?

nonexistent.

Look at this: "Six years of domestic soybeans, from near collapse to a full counterattack!"

"We used to import tens of millions of tons of soybeans and corn every year, but this year our grain imports have dropped to a historic low!

The most prominent one among them is soybean. As of the date, the country has not imported a single soybean, but has exported millions of tons of soybeans and soy products!

Genetically modified soybeans have completely disappeared from the country! "

(End of this chapter)